December 2, 2013
HECM endorsements for November rose 12% to 4,690 loans, marking the impact of standard ARM applications taken before the Sep 30th program changes. We expect to see endorsements continue to be relatively strong for the next few months, but turn significantly lower toward the end of Q1 next year. New applications are falling well short of replacing pipeline fundings since principal limits were reduced.
On the bright side, despite all the program changes this year it’s been a growth period for the industry with volume up 15.9% through November, including 9 straight months of year over year increases since March. That coincides fairly closely with housing price upticks over the same time frame, but it’s more a case of no significant lender exits upsetting distribution and marketing reach this year alongside stabilized housing prices (which have been conducive to HECM growth since at least 2011).
Among the regions, 7 of 10 were up in November including a big 206 loan increase (23.6%) in Pacific/Hawaii and 32.3% increase in Mid-Atlantic. Phoenix continues to power a remarkable comeback, up 64.7% over last Jan-Nov and not a single metro is down in the region.
Among lenders, 6 of 10 were up, with another flat for the month.
Click the image below for the full report.
November 1, 2013
NRMLA’s annual convention is just around the corner. Since we want everyone feeling good and happy next week at the conference, lets look at the numbers on an annual basis, and see what kind of positive things we can find.
- Despite all of the pessimism and uncertainty and changes and all of the other headwinds the industry has faced, volume is up almost 17% vs last year. Yes, you read that right, 17% growth in an industry that has seen its main product eliminated and endured another bout of principal limit cuts.
- All ten of the HUD regions are up for the year. That is something we haven’t seen for a long time…
- Only eight of the HUD Field Offices are showing negative numbers year over year.
- Eight of the top 10 lenders are up for the year. 16 of the top 20. Not bad!
- The latest HUD applications report shows case numbers have been increasing nicely since April, and are back up to last year’s levels in August.
(If you are going to NRMLA and want to feel good about the industry, stop reading!)
The devil, of course, is in the details. In this case, its the monthly trends:
- October endorsement volume of 4,188 units is down 7.5% vs September, and is the second lowest total seen in the last twelve months.
- September application volume is probably going to exceed August, but the data we track internally shows that applications fell off a cliff in October with the new Principal Limit factors, and haven’t had any recovery. We are talking about more than a 50% haircut in application volume.
The takeaway from all of this: Enjoy the numbers for the rest of this year, ’cause next year they are going to get real ugly.
October 15, 2013
NRMLA New Orleans is right around the corner – if you’re going to be there too let’s connect!
It’s been a while since we’ve published the HECM Trends report and this is a great time to show where reverse volume is happening.
The whole industry has grown on a unit volume basis this year (15% as of July) and while it’s true that a rising tide lifts all boats, there’s something to be said for putting your line in the water where fish are biting:
- The top 10 states ranking on page 1 shows Arizona, California and North Carolina all soundly exceeding the 15% industry growth rate nationally (with Florida slightly besting that rate at 17.5%)
- The top 10 counties ranking just below that shows 3 California counties at the top: Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego (with Riverside close behind at 6th)
- At the bottom of page 2, we can see 4 California cities at the top of growth rankings by Maximum Claim Amounts: San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, and Mission Viejo (our humble hometown).
We love to illustrate how to use our reports to increase your business and picked on California because it’s a great reverse mortgage market and we’re most familiar with the golden state. You can make a case for where to be in whatever state you’re licensed by following a similar approach.
Find your state/county/city/zip in the full report below (click on the image) or feel free to give us a shout if you’d like a personal walk through.