Where is the summer going? Already the end of July, but not to worry as we have a fresh batch of industry trends for you just in time for month end. A bit of housekeeping before we talk about the highlights of the report: For those of you who read this via email, the report link from yesterday’s post inadvertently linked to last month’s Wholesale Leaders. The correct link is here.
On to the highlights:
- Florida continues to weaken further. YTD volume is now down just under 29%, the weakest by far of the top 10 volume states. On the opposite end of the spectrum comes New York, up 42%, and Illinois (up 34%) YTD.
- Despite volume being down overall in California (-3.4%), we are continuing to see strength in the coastal counties. Orange (+133%), Los Angeles (+19%), and San Diego (+3%) are all up for the year. We didn’t run the numbers yet but for the gamblers out there we’d put the over/under line on California dollar volume growth for the year at +10%. Any takers out there?
- Most impressive city for the year is Brooklyn, NY. Okay, we know it’s technically a burough and not a city, but the numbers don’t lie. Volume is up 149% to 405 units… Weakest of the top 10 cities: Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia and Hialeah, FL are all down over 20%.
- Before you get too worried about that Houston drop above, remember that Texas overall is doing quite well this year, up 12.5% YTD. Just so happens that the growth is coming very strong away from the traditional hot spots and more than making up for some weakness in Houston. Certainly helps that Dallas is up 33.5%. If you want to know which other counties in Texas you should be targeting, check out our Market Opportunity Report for more details…
- Active lenders in the industry came in at 987 for the month of June, a 15% drop from June 08. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit more contraction in the total lenders endorsing loans as we go forward…
Wholesale has had a tough couple of months, but looks like June was a little happier in the broker/wholesaler world. After last month’s 20% drop, wholesale volume picked up a bit in June, growing just north of 8% to 4,623 units, with trailing 12 month volume coming in at 60,448.
There is a new #1 in the wholesale world this month – Metlife. (We like to think it’s because they use our Wholesale Analytics Report to help manage their wholesale business.) With 919 wholesale units, Metlife was far above #2 World Alliance (745) and #3 Bank of America (697). Though its not at the Freedom or JB Nutter levels of the past (yet?), it’s still an accomplishment worth mentioning.
The question, of course, is how did they do it? It’s no secret that they have a very nice fixed rate product offering that is winning over lots of business and that’s leading to many successes in volume and capture rate.
Beyond sheer volume, we like to focus on things like customer capture – defined as the percentage of loans your brokers do through your company. If you look at the bottom left of page 2 on this report, you’ll see Metlife’s customer capture was 28% — not very impressive compared to JB Nutter or Financial Freedom (44% and 38%, respectively). But that’s a trailing 12 month look. If we look at the trailing 3 months, Metlife came in at 40%, and in the most recent month, their capture hit 49%.
While this doesn’t tell the whole story, it’s certainly one of the key components to their recent success. If you are a wholesale lender, one thing you should focus on is earning more of your customers’ business. (In fact, we strongly believe that this metric is one of the 3 key measures to base bonus pay structure on – think of it as the customer loyalty/happiness thermometer. Contact us for more information.)
Yes, we know that it’s July and this report shows May numbers, but rest assured it’s not a typo. We’re crossing our fingers that we’ll be back on track with our June results — believe us when we say that we’d prefer to get these out ASAP… But, its summer, and we can’t promise that we won’t be hitting the beach for a litte R&R.
Given that we should be putting out June data in the next week, we’ll keep this overview short and sweet:
- Florida has ceded the top spot back to California, as volume in Florida continues to nosedive, now down over 25% from last year.
- We continue to see stong growth in the southern coastal counties of California (Los Angeles County +20%, Orange +125%, San Diego +4%).
- Cook County in Illinois is also impressive, and along with Suffolk NY, extends its 40%+ growth rate.
- California maintains its lock on the most penetrated cities list, holding 7 of the top 10, though Florida has 2 of the top 3. Despite that, California still ranks 3rd overall, behind DC and Nevada.
- Highest growth state for the year: Montana — though it ranks quite low on the overall volume scale, with 241 loans YTD.
