Archive for the ‘ReverseIQ’ Category
HECM endorsements reversed course in September, dropping 14.6% from August levels.
- Wholesale volume declined 21.6% to 1,519 loans, coming back down to levels seen in May – July.
- Retail volume dropped at a slower pace, falling 9.1% month over month to 2,219 loans.
All of the lenders highlighted last month had volume declines in the double digit percentages, suggesting most of the August gains were due to endorsement backlogs getting cleared out.
Don’t forget to check out the rankings on page 3 (trailing twelve months with channel splits) and page 4 (single month retail only). If your company is not an FHA approved lender, these are the only industry rankings where you’ll appear!
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HECM endorsements for November rose 12% to 4,690 loans, marking the impact of standard ARM applications taken before the Sep 30th program changes. We expect to see endorsements continue to be relatively strong for the next few months, but turn significantly lower toward the end of Q1 next year. New applications are falling well short of replacing pipeline fundings since principal limits were reduced.
On the bright side, despite all the program changes this year it’s been a growth period for the industry with volume up 15.9% through November, including 9 straight months of year over year increases since March. That coincides fairly closely with housing price upticks over the same time frame, but it’s more a case of no significant lender exits upsetting distribution and marketing reach this year alongside stabilized housing prices (which have been conducive to HECM growth since at least 2011).
Among the regions, 7 of 10 were up in November including a big 206 loan increase (23.6%) in Pacific/Hawaii and 32.3% increase in Mid-Atlantic. Phoenix continues to power a remarkable comeback, up 64.7% over last Jan-Nov and not a single metro is down in the region.
Among lenders, 6 of 10 were up, with another flat for the month.
Click the image below for the full report.
NRMLA’s annual convention is just around the corner. Since we want everyone feeling good and happy next week at the conference, lets look at the numbers on an annual basis, and see what kind of positive things we can find.
- Despite all of the pessimism and uncertainty and changes and all of the other headwinds the industry has faced, volume is up almost 17% vs last year. Yes, you read that right, 17% growth in an industry that has seen its main product eliminated and endured another bout of principal limit cuts.
- All ten of the HUD regions are up for the year. That is something we haven’t seen for a long time…
- Only eight of the HUD Field Offices are showing negative numbers year over year.
- Eight of the top 10 lenders are up for the year. 16 of the top 20. Not bad!
- The latest HUD applications report shows case numbers have been increasing nicely since April, and are back up to last year’s levels in August.
(If you are going to NRMLA and want to feel good about the industry, stop reading!)
The devil, of course, is in the details. In this case, its the monthly trends:
- October endorsement volume of 4,188 units is down 7.5% vs September, and is the second lowest total seen in the last twelve months.
- September application volume is probably going to exceed August, but the data we track internally shows that applications fell off a cliff in October with the new Principal Limit factors, and haven’t had any recovery. We are talking about more than a 50% haircut in application volume.
The takeaway from all of this: Enjoy the numbers for the rest of this year, ’cause next year they are going to get real ugly.