December 1, 2011
November HECM endorsements totaled 4,654, up 1 loan from last month. The lack of change in industry overall volume is remarkable considering the second shoe dropped on Wells Fargo’s expected volume decline. Last month we were very worried about the Wells volume decline given that last months’ drop was accompanied by a drop in aggregate volume among all other lenders.
This month the other lenders entirely picked up the slack, suggesting that our initial guess that half of Wells’ volume might migrate to other lenders (rather than disappearing completely) could play out after all. Part of that offset came from an additional 14 lenders showing up in the rankings compared to October (5.9% increase) who contributed 59 loans after netting out the October lenders that fell out in November.
The headline story of the month is undoubtedly the industry taking the Wells decline in stride, and the disparate lender performances are mirrored in the geographic perspective. Several regions saw significant changes from last month:
- On the downside, Northwest/Alaska, Pacific/Hawaii and Midwest all saw double digit percentage declines of -24.1%, -14.5% and -12.4%, respectively
- Rocky Mountain bounced back up 50% from a dramatic drop in October
- Southwest and New York/New Jersey also put in good performances, up 19.1% and 10.5%
Click on the image below for this month’s report.
November 17, 2011
HECM endorsements were down -3.8% in September, and TPO/Wholesale fared worse than Retail/direct volumes. If we put that together with what we already know about Wells and BofA exiting and where theirvolumes are by state, what can we expect in the next few months?
A big part of that story can be found in applications per business day, which since April have been trending down compared to last year.
When comparing applications to endorsements (and ignoring the distortion from last September’s application rush ahead of PL reductions), we should expect a continued decline in endorsements year over year given the pattern of applications thus far.
Against this national trend lower, we continue to see some states and cities buck the trend:
- North Carolina continues to perform well, while New Jersey, New York and Texas are all up modestly year to date
- Among counties, Philadelphia, Nassau and Suffolk in NY, and San Diego and Orange in CA are all benefiting this year
- Philadelpia, San Antonio and San Diego are all up double digits among cities from last year
Click on the image below to view the full HECM Trends report for this month.
November 8, 2011
October HECM endorsement totals were spooky as Wells Fargo’s volume slid down the exit ramp, but what more can we learn about September now that we have detailed figures available? HECM Originators shows us the balance between retail/direct and TPO/wholesale channels, and gives us our first picture of individual TPO companies for the month since they’re not included in HUD’s report on the first of each month anymore.
September overall endorsements were down -3.8%, but TPO/wholesale (-6.1%) fared worse than retail/direct (-2.5%) for the 4th straight month. That string is certain to be broken next month given the big impact of Wells Fargo’s decline, but it does suggest sustained weakness in the TPO model for reverse mortgages. The regulatory changes seem the most likely culprit for the change, whether this was the intended consequence or not.
The full list of HECM Originators (including TPOs) can be found on pages 3 and 4. Page 3 ranks the top 100 originators in the past twelve months, and page 4 ranks the top 100 originators for the month of September. If a company endorsed more than 6 loans in September or 73 loans in the past 12 months and you can’t find them on this, please let us know. We’re still sorting through some of the names that are slightly different as a TPO compared to their FHA approved name, and we want to make sure we rank everyone appropriately.
Click the image below to access the full report:
