Look out below! We’ve been talking about the end of the first real refi boom in HECMs for months now and the proof is finally here. HECM endorsements sank -43.5% in September, the lowest total in 2.5 years.
The expectation is that refinances have dropped dramatically in September, but any significant weakness beyond that could mean […]
HECM endorsements rose 16.2% in August, after a potentially worrying decline in July.
We don’t have an update yet on case numbers issued past June or endorsement mix in August, but once those are available we’ll be looking closely at new HECM growth and where refinance activity is settling.
On the regional side, 8 of the 10 […]
HECM endorsements shrank -17% in July, as the increases in 10 year CMT rates from earlier in the year flow through the application/funding/endorsement cycle.
A look at the case numbers issued through June shows that 2/3 of the decline on that end of the process is from H2H refinance drops, but 1/3 is from a decline […]
HECM endorsements shrank rose 2.7% in June, bucking the headwinds from rapidly rising 10 year treasury rates so far, to finish with 5,937 loans.
We also saw the May edition of FHA’s Production Report released, showing a -56.3% drop in HECM to HECM refinance case numbers issued from March to May. Coupled with a -21.8% decrease […]
HECM endorsements shrank -7.7% in May to 5,783 loans. We have little doubt that the recent rise in 10 year treasury rates influenced that decline, even though case numbers issued (a proxy for HECM applications) show a ~10% increase in HECM to HECM refinance (H2H) volume in March. That’s the most recent case number data […]
April HECM endorsements sagged -3.8% to 6,265 loans – not bad after setting a 10 year high last month. HECM refinances have always been driven more by home price appreciation than interest rate changes, but rising rates do cool things down a bit.
We’d expect slower growth than last year at minimum, but further volume declines […]
March HECM endorsements leaped 26.3% to 6,510 loans – and no this isn’t an April Fools joke! This is the highest monthly volume level since March 2011.
All 10 regions were up, and it was anything but the usual western tilt:
February HECM endorsements dropped -10.7% to 5,153 loans after a roaring start to 2022, yet held above 5,000 loans per month for the third straight month and four of the last five. It looks too soon at this point to call January an anomaly, but if we ignore that there’s remarkable consistency around the 5,000 […]
After finishing 2021 on the highs, 2022 has started out even higher! HECM endorsements rose 10.6% to 5,771 loans in January, shifting the conversation from a possible fluke in year end volume to wondering how much farther the industry can run in the near term with very favorable home prices, low interest rates, and newfound […]
HECM endorsements inched down -1.5% to 4,953 loans in November, consolidating gains from October with the second highest monthly volume of the year.
Five of the ten regions were up on the month with both of the top two down keeping the industry overall from adding to last month’s gains:
