Industry Trends – October 2009

Our Industry Trends report for October is now available (see the link at the bottom of this post for the full PDF).

We’ve been talking quite a bit about how anecdotally the volume appears to be moving into the higher home value areas, and we wanted to show just how prevalent the trend is this year.  Take a look at the chart below, which graphs home values vs volume change in the states of CA, FL, NY, MA, & TX, in counties with more than 5,000 senior households that had 50 or more loans done in 2008:

Click for detailed version

What is this chart telling us?  If you look closely, it appears that areas where home values are above the old lending limits are experiencing volume increases.  Of the areas in this chart above $362,790, only 5 have negative volume change vs. 2008, with relatively minor declines at that.  Once you go below the old lending limits, however, it’s more of a crapshoot, with well over half of the counties experiencing volume declines.  The further down in value we go, the higher the level of declines.

This is not surprising, but it shows an interesting way to analyze the market and begin to plan your next move – look for areas with high home values and large senior populations.  If you need help with that, we can certainly provide the data to point you in the right direction.

Happy holidays to everyone and we’ll see you again next week with our Wholesale Leaders report before taking off for the North Pole (or just Montana) for Christmas!

Click the image below for our Industry Trends report.

Industry Trends - October 2009