Three State Story – Industry Trends November 2010

Hard to believe it’s been two years, but February will mark the 2nd anniversary of the ReverseIQ Newsletter and our free industry reports. In that time we’ve learned that over 1,300 of our fellow industry participants are reading each month, and hopefully we’ve all learned a lot about what makes our little corner of the mortgage industry tick.

This month, we thought it appropriate to mark an event that underlines the changes in our industry and the US housing markets in general. It’s not lender consolidation and competitive changes, even though we’ve written about that plenty and is worthy of its own discussion in our Retail Leaders and Wholesale Leaders reports.

More to the point of the Industry Trends report is the market by market perspective of states, cities, counties and even zip codes. In that spirit, it’s an interesting time to check in on the top 3 states by unit volume in our industry: California, Florida, and Texas. The very first table on page 1 of the report shows the top 10 states by unit volume (along with growth rate). Last month, Texas volume year to date passed Florida to take second place in the nation, and that new lead increased in November.

This change has been a long time coming, so it seems fitting to look back at the decade first to see where each of these top 3 states has been for a clue to where they might be headed next.

California (blue) and Florida (green) have been the top two states and really have a similar pattern on this graph: housing boom and bust. Florida’s reverse mortgage market boomed later than California, but same basic volume profile. Texas (red), on the other hand, exhibits much more of the ‘slow and steady wins the race’ pattern and has overtaken Florida as the state continues to see volume declines.

A closer look at the last two years shows how Texas could even challenge California if recent trends continue.

While California (2.1 million) and Florida (1.9 million) both have more senior homeowner households than Texas (1.5 million), demographics aren’t always destiny and particularly not in the short term. Housing values and trends influence volumes dramatically, as this comparison suggests.

All of this underlines the importance of focusing your sales and marketing resources on the right areas for success. To find out more about how to start off the new year with a clear picture of your area(s), take a look at our Retail Trilogy service for your company, or Sales Territory Scorecard for your customized look at your loan officer success factors.

Click on the image below to view the full Industry Trends report for this month.

Industry Trends - November 2010