NRMLA’s annual convention is just around the corner. Since we want everyone feeling good and happy next week at the conference, lets look at the numbers on an annual basis, and see what kind of positive things we can find.
- Despite all of the pessimism and uncertainty and changes and all of the other headwinds the industry has faced, volume is up almost 17% vs last year. Yes, you read that right, 17% growth in an industry that has seen its main product eliminated and endured another bout of principal limit cuts.
- All ten of the HUD regions are up for the year. That is something we haven’t seen for a long time…
- Only eight of the HUD Field Offices are showing negative numbers year over year.
- Eight of the top 10 lenders are up for the year. 16 of the top 20. Not bad!
- The latest HUD applications report shows case numbers have been increasing nicely since April, and are back up to last year’s levels in August.
(If you are going to NRMLA and want to feel good about the industry, stop reading!)
The devil, of course, is in the details. In this case, its the monthly trends:
- October endorsement volume of 4,188 units is down 7.5% vs September, and is the second lowest total seen in the last twelve months.
- September application volume is probably going to exceed August, but the data we track internally shows that applications fell off a cliff in October with the new Principal Limit factors, and haven’t had any recovery. We are talking about more than a 50% haircut in application volume.
The takeaway from all of this: Enjoy the numbers for the rest of this year, ’cause next year they are going to get real ugly.